Space Weather Observations, Alerts, and Forecast
Current Space Weather Overview
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3-day Solar-Geophysical Forecast
Product: 3-Day Forecast
- Issued: 2024 May 17 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center.
Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 6 (NOAA Scale G2). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for May 17-May 19 2024 is 4.00 (below NOAA Scale levels).
May 17 | May 18 | May 19 | |
---|---|---|---|
00-03UT | 3.67 | 2.67 | 2.33 |
03-06UT | 4.00 | 2.33 | 3.00 |
06-09UT | 3.00 | 2.67 | 4.00 |
09-12UT | 2.33 | 1.67 | 4.00 |
12-15UT | 2.33 | 2.00 | 2.67 |
15-18UT | 2.33 | 1.67 | 2.33 |
18-21UT | 2.67 | 1.67 | 2.00 |
21-00UT | 3.00 | 2.33 | 2.67 |
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was above S-scale storm level thresholds.
May 17 | May 18 | May 19 | |
---|---|---|---|
S1 or greater | 25% | 5% | 5% |
Rationale: S1-S2 (Minor-Moderate) conditions are at a chance 17 May due to the flare potential from now departed Region 3664. Probabilities drop to a nominal levels on 18-19 May from the remaining active regions on the Suns visible disk.
Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at May 16 2024 0804 UTC.
May 17 | May 18 | May 19 | |
---|---|---|---|
R1-R2 | 40% | 40% | 40% |
R3 or greater | 10% | 10% | 10% |
Rationale: A chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) conditions and a slight chance for R3 (Strong) exist 17-19 May.
Real Time Images of the Sun
SOHO EIT 171 |
SOHO EIT 195 |
SOHO EIT 284 |
SOHO EIT 304 |
SDO/HMI Continuum |
SDO/HMI Magnetogram |
LASCO C2 |
LASCO C3 |
Solar Wind
Real-Time Solar Wind Real-Time Solar Wind data broadcast from NASA's ACE satellite. |
WSA-Enlil Solar Wind Prediction |
Move your cursor over the timeline to 'scrub' through the forecast. |
Solar Cycle
The Solar Cycle is observed by counting the frequency and placement of sunspots visible on the Sun. The forecast comes from the Solar Cycle Prediction Panel representing NOAA, NASA and the International Space Environmental Services (ISES). The Prediction Panel has predicted Cycle 25 to reach a maximum of 115 occurring in July, 2025. The solar radio flux at 10.7 cm (2800 MHz) is an excellent indicator of solar activity. Often called the F10.7 index, it is one of the longest running records of solar activity. The F10.7 radio emissions originates high in the chromosphere and low in the corona of the solar atmosphere. The F10.7 correlates well with the sunspot number as well as a number of UltraViolet (UV) and visible solar irradiance records.
Auroral Activity Forecast
Northern Hemi Auroral Map |
Southern Hemi Auroral Map |
Radio Communications Impact
D-Region Absorption
D-Region Absorption Prediction |
VHF and HF Band Conditions
Credits:
Space Weather Images and Information (excluded from copyright) courtesy of:NOAA / NWS Space Weather Prediction Center
Mauna Loa Solar Observatory (HAO/NCAR)
SOHO (ESA & NASA).
Space Weather links:
3-Day Forecast of Solar and Geophysical Activity
Space Weather Overview
LASCO Coronagraph
Real-Time Solar Wind
Space Weather Advisory Outlooks
Space Weather Forecast Disussions
Space Weather Alerts, Watches and Warnings
Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO)
The Very Latest SOHO Images
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